So with that logic, lets use his first two years of arbitration to show how much of an overpay the Strider deal is because Ohtani only got like $8.5M for year 1 and 2, with him being a full-time hitter as well. Story 16.2 WAR Wouldnt be a bad time to offer him a 5-6 year deal at 100-120 mill. Yes a 2.67 ERA is better then a 2.27 ERA. Super Two only applies when they have at least approximately 2/3 of a year of service time but less than a full season to where the team gets almost seven years of control (like the infamous Kris Bryant example) instead of slightly over six as in Striders case. /s, Id use the Baez contract as a baseline 23AAV over 6. He is going to see a huge raise to around $25 million this offseason. Strider will be a Super Two if he stays on the MLB roster all of next season, so that would have raised his prices in arbitration by a huge margin. And that is adding in a discount for Atlanta. $35M (2028 Option). I am sure that actuaries worked hard. Its about rewarding the player. Thats $57M add his one year of included free agency for $35M ($40M is bridge too far for me, sorry) and you have $92M roughly for 6 years. Be the first one to comment on this story. Braves have got it going on. the official stats partner of the NBA, NHL and MLB. 2 things: Now that theyre going against the Yankees, Cleveland has prime time. You have? The 2029 option comes with a $5MM buyout, which is factored into the guaranteed portion of the contract. So now we have $55 mil. Strider was added to the Atlanta active roster on October 1, 2021, and made his main league debut with one inning of relief against the New York Mets. Spencer Strider is on Twitter at SpencerSTRIDer. . pic . $12M (2025) Go Braves! Spencer Strider's salary is $710,000 per year, which includes a $0 signing bonus. Prior to his walk year, he had an 8.8 career bWAR, or 2.1/650 PAs. Thats conjecture, you stating what his arb years would or wouldnt be considering the volatility of pitchers, players with less than two years of major league experience, players with less than 150 major league innings, and who have barely seen each team once, when pitching has the advantage over hitting when neither has faced each other. Corbin Burnes going into year 5, second arb season (1 year of control after 2023) is due to make $11.3M in his second to last trip through arbitration. Grisssoms a likely utility player or trade chip. If you add those up, you get $77M. Actually they did.. Youre ignoring hes going to be Top 3 in the ROY so hes going to get granted an extra year of service time. Bigger pitchers hold up better, thicker pitchers hold up better. Theyll probably lose even more money on those years than they gain with the discount on the one or two free agent years, which probably would only be worth $30M max per season even if everything goes mostly right for him. Win Expectancy, Run Expectancy, and Leverage Index calculations provided by Tom Tango of InsideTheBook.com, and co-author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. No respect. Strider will absolutely get a raise from his last arbitration year, so even a modest raise means the Braves save $20 ++ million in those two seasons alone. The Super 2 status means more than 2 year and less than 3 years. Partnered with the USA TODAY Sports Media Group|Powered by, Signed a 6 year $75 million contract extension with Atlanta (ATL), including a club option for 2029, Signed a 1 year $710,000 contract with Atlanta (ATL), Drafted by Atlanta (ATL): Round 4 (#126 overall), Drafted by Cleveland (CLE): Round 35 (#1062 overall), Drafted by Atlanta (ATL): Round 4 (#126overall), Drafted by Cleveland (CLE): Round 35 (#1062overall). They might not be able to re-sign Swanson because of this deal adding $15M to the cap due to his cap adjusted salary and if they do, they no longer can pursue DeGrom or another big named pitcher. You do need to add a year of FA to that because 6 years takes them through his first year of FA. Strider will make $4 million by 2025, with $1 million going to each of the next two seasons. He was also selected as the July National League Rookie of the Month. He will earn $1 million per season in 2023 and 2024, $4 million in 2025, $20 million in 2026, and $22 million per season in 2027-2028. Being represented by Frontline he got himself a nice contract plus doesnt have to worry about fleas & ticks, Repd by Frontline and now hes got Bravecto. The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, Salaries may not be complete (especially pre-1985) and may not include some earned bonuses. This deal shows me the Braves have enormous confidence in Strider. He started the season in Atlanta. The Braves have to account for that in their offer. $140 per post at $7/CPM. I feel great, Strider said. The Braves have no SS prospects at the upper mil levels. They may as well take it. He was surely damaged goods at that pointat least to some degree.. Baez is also known as a reflex player, as in his dropoff is likely to be catastrophic, costing you the entirety of the last years of his deal. Spencer Strider is currently the starting pitcher position for the Atlanta Braves in Major League Baseball, the senior baseball league of the United States. And we're still kind of mulling over what's the right thing for us and him and how to use him.. Armed with a four-seam fastball averaging 98.5 MPH and a slider sporting a 42.9% whiff rate, Strider possesses exciting fantasy upside with his ability to miss bats and sport a low WHIP and ERA . That kind of evaluation has gotten the Tigers and Red Sox stuck w/those two. It would also be easier to negotiate more free agent years into the deal while still getting a significant discount on them. Im sure a non-GM telling someone they dont have what it takes to be a GM, carries a lot of weight! His third career outing was his most dominant at the Major League level as Strider's strikeouts came on fastballs clocked at 99.2, 100.3, 100.3, 99.8 and 99.8 mph. He would have extended him for 10 years/$200m. Baez/Story trending down, Swanson up. As of January 2022, 23% of starting pitchers in MLB and 26% of all pitchers have had TJ surgery. Core is in place for about as long as you want it to be. Im sure it will be reasonably priced. $200 per post at $10/CPM. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising. That mark was quickly smashed by Wander Franco (11 years, $182MM) and further surpassed this summer by Julio Rodriguez (12 years, $210MM). The way they draft and are able to get their players so sign long term for under market value is second to none. They paid $75 million for $102 million worth of his services based on your numbers. Owen Murphy, RHP 2. Just a cup of coffee at the ML level. Well strider pitched last year too. https://community.fangraphs.com/velocity-and-the-likelihood-of-tommy-john-surgery/. Ride along with Braves pitcher Spencer Strider as he talks about what it's like playing at the big-league level, his favorite music to play on days he starts. Use Fried as an example who might make roughly $40 mil through arb in total. and, additionally, considering how poorly the Mets played the prior year, anyone predicting the Mets to win the division should get a gold star. 11h. Braves fans awoke on Monday looking forward to learning more about Striders health and potential availability during the NLDS. AAs notoriously quiet when negotiating. He touched 101 early in the outing. He made his MLB debut in 2021. Other then that what aging crap did we sign? The lot of before money is hopeful at best. Yeah Strider might get bonuses but it wouldnt be coming from the Braves, it would be coming from the league as a whole. If Free Agents make $40M in five years, if hes healthy, if he remains productive. @mets. Strider becomes the fourth young Braves star to be extended this season alone, joining first baseman Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), center fielder Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and star third baseman Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM). Its also worth noting that Fried might take the offer Strider just got as a giant slap in the face since hes been leading the rotation for years and won a WS for Atlanta, while Strider hasnt even pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Now they have him locked in through 2028 with extremely team friendly option in 2029. Salary Spencer Strider's salary is $710,000 per year, which includes a $0 signing bonus. The Braves dont seem to pay for peak seasons from post-prime age players, especially not at SS, which is about the easiest position to put a cheap, 2 WAR floor under, given fielding peaks in players early 20s. . These deals take trust on both sides. For the same price Id much rather have Swansbys 2023=2028, than Baezs 2022-2027. I wouldnt just throw around $140M in proven assets for $140M in prospects. Why? Obviously there are others, but these two usually seem to have reasonable and unbiased thoughts on their rivals. He was real good but lets not get carried away with how good he is. (Age 22-338d, Playoff team extra year. A fourth-round gem in the extremely truncated 2020 draft (five rounds), Strider skyrocketed through the Braves system despite a lack of minor league games in 2020, ultimately making his Major League debut late in the 2021 season. Buying out those arbitration years is key to these deals imo. Apple TV games are free this year. If they are playing in New York, they ask the team to pay their apartment rent or to finance the home they live in, they get extra money to offset the taxes. the only reason they have been able to sign this massive core of players is because theyre taking risks and signing them very early. The Braves should evaluate Swanson based on his last 3 healthy seasons of play. Instead, he attended Clemson University and played college baseball for the Clemson Tigers. Its not if Strider has TJ surgery, but when he will have it. Overall, Strider broke out with 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and a 38.3% strikeout rate that paced all big leaguers who pitched at least 100 innings. The Braves have zero middle infield prospects on their top 4 mil teams. Disagree on my mets. If he doesnt get a full year of service next season, it is because he sucked or he was suspended by the league for performance enhancing substances, lawsuits or criminal issues! Even if Strider had Bob Gipsons 1968 season or even put up Verlanders 2022, there is no precedent for this contract. I agree on Riley, but Harris and Strider seemed to sign for cheap. Spencer pitched as a long reliever and starter, was a three-time ACC Academic Honor Roll member, and appeared in 26 games with 10 starts, totaling 63.0 innings pitched. That is why teams are willing to pay huge dollars for seasons they know will not offer the same performance as the earlier years. Look on baseballtradevalues.com, read their article on justifying Sotos value and how I criticized it before he was traded to the Padres and my calculations were almost dead on value. Id bet serious coin Swanson wont give up the money some GM who still believes in career years will throw at him. Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. Strider opened the season as a reliever but then solidified Atlanta's rotation, helping the Braves win their fifth consecutive NL East title. Typical cutoff is around 125-145 days into the season! Your login session has expired. You also dont know whether he took the extension in order to lock up significant money, as a hedge against injury, or because he and his agent wanted to advance pitcher salaries for others. 2nd year $14.75 mm, Add in that Yankees more than any other team have their games moved to ESPN and Fox, and its often a challenge to play the game of find the Yankees. Less games on YES, but no reduction in the carriage fee we pay. June 27, 2022 To Spencer Strider, there are two parts of his baseball life: "PTJ" and "ATJ." Pre-Tommy John and After Tommy John. LOL best rookie season ever. Its a horrible deal, set your expectations to hate it now, so you are less annoyed in 3 years. BTV? The linked article at fangraphs talks about the increased likelihood of TJ surgery as pitch velocity increases, using two reference points for velo, the general takeaway is that 1 in 3 pitchers throwing 96+ mph will need Tommy John surgery between 23 and 25 years old. He should call Chaim Bloom and give him instructions. Only long term deal we signed was lindor who is young in his prime. Not a smart bet. Everything is an option, quite honestly, Snitker said. The Mets only have one tool in the toolbox and that tool is green if you know what I mean. Strider is now under contract with the Braves [] They have his first two free-agent years one locked in and the other as a club option. Strider will have one pre-arb year then 4 arb seasons. Strider is going to bonuses left and right which wouldve added to his arb numbers if he went that route. Austin Riley was signed to a 10-year, $212 million contract, and Michael Harris II was given an eight-year, $72 million deal. Those two pitchers both took home multiple pieces of hardware. Dynasty. Lengthy extensions to position players I get. Thought I was being clear there C Yards. Reading through this thread I think most people are missing a huge point. Albies was banged up this year but his $35M contract was earned in basically a year and a half. This is irrelevant, this is such a stupid overpay. Inning 3: Salary-cap drafts Inning 4: Preparation . They tended to evaluate the Mets as having the better team, but not by a lot, but were going (fwiw) with experience and so forth. Defending Champs and your slotted at Get Away games. If the Braves can reposition themselves as Americas Team once again, all that peach juice will come flowing back. Its a let me pay you now and you cut me a discount later. The Padres have about $57MM on the 28 books between Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., while the Rangers have about $51MM on the books between Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Scherzer isnt aging crap but it was one bad Wild Card game plus losing that pivotal start vs. ATL (he gave up 6 HR in his final 2 starts (inc. WC game) when he gave up only 13 HR all reg season). Thank_ God: The correct sentence structure you should have put is.. Try used instead of put. Elude.? 3rd ARB year was supposed to be $21.5 MM. Olson, Riley, Harris, and Strider are all reasonable balances between risk and reward for both the players and the team. $2M (2024) Spencer frequently posts images of them hanging around and having the time of their lives. Harper sold and sells lots of tickets etc and great pr. Career earnings will be less than $20M for his first full 5 seasons in the majors. Darius Vines, RHP 5. Strider agreed to a six-year, $75 million deal that includes a $22 million option with a $5 million buyout for 2029. Not me. Doubtful, Strider was just crying and nobody in NY gives a fk what he says. Spencer Strider undoubtedly earns a substantial sum of money from his sole career in baseball. What the hell is unexpected reply from the server mean? If they had done the same with Jurrjens or Hanson or Wood this wouldnt have gone well. Because he is a likely ROY finalist, if the Braves manipulated his service time all of that would remain exactly the same. His service time was at 2 years and 49 days and he did not qualify for Super 2. Strider burst on the scene this year as he posted a 2.67 ERA with 202 strikeouts over 31 appearances (20 starts), becoming the first Braves rookie in the Modern Era to have a 200-strikeout season. Good thing you waited until Strider got lit up in playoffs to respond. Jose Ramirez begs to disagree. Join our linker program. Now ask him why he comments as Pads Fans and BaseballIsLife! "EXTENDED @Braves have signed RHP Spencer Strider to a six year contract extension worth $75M. Its not playing victim. Per SNY's Andy Martino, the Mets are hesitant to go up to four years if another team offered four at a high salary figure for the two-time Cy Young winner, who opted out of the remaining two years of the five-year . Strider will be a Super Two and have 4 arbitration years. LOL Strider had it Right all along. This is going to be the Kevin Brown deal that literally changed the market in a day. Estimate 2023 Retained Salaries Leftover salaries from players who have been traded or released, or buyouts for declined options. Not a fan of it, but thats the way it works. Let's check, How Rich is Ralph, Efrain Valdez estimated Net Worth, Biography, Age, Height, Dating, Relationship Records, Salary, Income, Cars, Lifestyles & many more details have been updated below. Not two years. https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-camarena-grand-slam-off-max-scherzer, Wouldnt call him aging crap, but hes on the decline. They are respected as a team on the field, but not as a market. The problem is they still have the potential to either end up in the bleachers or the nose-bleed sections, or even if they get great seats behind homeplate, they are still losing nearly 30% on the gamble. Wouldve been a massive overpay. And like I said before, he wouldnt even qualify for the ERA title. I finally cut the cord and were saving thousands every year. He also only had 10 starts. 2 things: He played college baseball for the Clemson Tigers, and was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the fourth round of the 2020 Major League Baseball Draft. Are we going to have any money left for Dansby with all these signings? 2025: $9-10M Strider averaged 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings - best in the big leagues - while posting an 11-5 record, 2.67 earned run average, and 202 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings. Was hoping this thread would continue without trolls insulting one another instead of adding actual substance to their argument. People dont seem to understand just how good Striders peripherals are. I used Harvey as a buyer beware caution notice. When multiple players including likely Judge, Turner, and Correa surpass 7 years with a $35 MM AAV will you come back and say you were wrong? Spencer Strider was born on October 28, 1998. So the only time he could qualify for Super 2 status is after 2023. I mean I wouldnt even extend a player if they are going to get 85% or more of their contract by going year to year. Inigo Montoya: You keep using that term, Super Two. It doesnt mean what you think it means. But they know that by having a huge core of players, their total risk will decrease and one or two could be replaced with gem finds at trade deadlines like AA is known for. If his contact rate and barrel rate drops a little, his strikeout total will skyrocket even higher and his homeruns will fall off a cliff. Baez put up a 108 OPS+ and 23.7 bWAR in the 6 seasons leading up to his deal with the Tigers. Players dont sign extensions to be traded. I would give this contract a 5% chance of paying off for the Braves due to injury risk, statistical volatility, x-factor changes in both personal life and professional baseball. I could be mistaken on this because I dont follow the Braves as closely as you all do; but it seems to me that part of this is AAs (or Braves) intent on establishing the players relationship through goodwill too for the future. By comparison the Mariners sign Castillo at roughly $22M/year with a $5M option if he needs TJ surgery in the last 3 years with 80% of the contract covering FA years and coming with a similar option year. Angels were very much in the running for Cole. Jared Shuster, LHP 4. @Run. He swings at any and everything trying to make contact. Im curious what he wants. The New York Mets lead the division for most of the season. SALARY Bo Bichette, SS, TOR. That wont continue. Freeman even took Seagers #5 jerseytoo easy. Agree on braves. Just saying. But theyre the ones winning Championships while Im sitting at home typing on my laptop, so my opinion doesnt mean much. Two east coast teams in ATL/PHI with two west coast teams in LAD/SD pretty much guarantees youre going to go in this order. If he is 2nd in ROY he is credited with a full year of service so he definitely would NOT be a Super Two. They also made a couple great trades getting future star players that wear near MLB ready (Dansby/Fried). Updated On January 29, 2023. Again, he IS a Super Two. I do think its a little harder in Boston/New York because success there translates to big dollars everywhere. Talks a lot about eating correctly, training well, and staying mentally fit. Before his MLB career, he was a member of the Augusta GreenJackets, Rome Braves, Mississippi Braves, and Gwinnett Stripers. Great for Strider too, because he locks in generational guaranteed money. Kris Bryant and Cody Bellinger were Super Twos, for instance, being arb eligible four times as opposed to the usual three. Every FA in Swansons class is going to be more expensive than he will. It is for someone that age. Christian Academy of Knoxville (Knoxville, TN). Then add in the two FA years the Braves control at $22 million each, and this deal is great for the Braves. Spencer Strider - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball Spencer Strider Atlanta Braves Age: 24 Bats/Throws: R/R 6' 0" / 195 P Quick Look 2022 Pitch Summary: FA: 67% SL: 28% Prospects Report. 2024: minimum Total Zone Rating and initial framework for Wins above Replacement calculations provided by Sean Smith. Who doesnt believe that the Tigers have serious buyers remorse on Baez? Hopefully Strider has a great career and its not an issue, but if it goes poorly thats not going to be a fun contract to have on the books in 2026-2028. I dont think you know what straw man means. It seems about in the right range. . The Braves got a significant discount on the 2 FA years. . You are comparing Harveys call up as a full season is disingenuous. Otherwise, smart to stash the stache. Players dont decide when they will be traded unless they have a no trade clause. So as to illustrate this, Jacob DeGroms arb years: $4M (2017), $7.5M (2018), $17M (2019) Or how that extra service time effects Super Two qualifications. ================================ If they dont re-sign Swanson, theyre making a serious mistake. Maybe MLB realizes that they werent actually racist. Cohen doesnt care. While I think the Strider extension is a good gamble on an excellent young arm, youre right that any pitcher can turn into a pumpkin due to poor health or performance. He had a 5-2 record with a 4.71 ERA, allowing 53 hits, 38 walks, and 89 strikeouts. Player page for Spencer Strider of the Atlanta Braves. If you wait a year or two and he continues to pitch well, then his pricetag doubles. Hes top ten talent. While I suppose they are blacked out on MLB.tv, but then you can just watch them on Apple TV instead. It made them woke enough to move the all star game, but now they are ok? However, he already has slightly more than a full year of service time. Musgrove also signed a team friendly extension w/his hometown Padres. I think its even more encouraging within you're organization to know your going to have that nucleus every year.. Thats stupid-economics! If he reaches his potential, sure if you want to believe that, but not on a long-term deal for a 30-year-old pitcher. us. A visual look at how Spencer Strider ranks across the league, conference, division, and team. Spencer Strider 6 hours ago https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/03/11/mlb-collective-bargaining-agreement-details-rule-changes, Players who finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting will receive a full year of service time., It says a full year of service time. Spencer Strider (left) and Michael Harris II are vying to give the Braves their seventh National League Rookie of the Year. For those that missed it, Strider will be Super Two BECAUSE he will be top 2 in ROY and that means he gets an extra year of service time in the new CBA. The move is retroactive to Sept. 21 and Strider has not pitched since last Sunday. Lots and lots and lots of people that dont realize what being in the top 2 of ROY voting means for service time. I think that $40M is more like $45M, So they paid him a bonus of $25M in order to obtain a 1+1 extension for $22M + $22M, with a $5M buyout. 2. With future commitments, he still has a lot to accomplish in his life. Not sure what your point is, but throwing 100 mph doesnt mean crap for a number of reasons, one there are guys like Mauricio Cabrera:, Bruce Rondn, Henry Alberto Rodriguez:, Joel Zumaya:, Tayron Guerrero, Bobby Parnell, who have touched 103 mph and none have made anywhere near that money and all had problems turning velocity into results. The volatility is too high. Contracts are not based on the back end, they area based on value as a whole. Talent and stats should already give a higher floor, they arent going to double that for the Julios, Adleys, and Spencers of the world. Good thing Shane Spencer wasnt on the Braves for 2 months this season, they wouldve given him $100m. Lets say you are going to a MLB game at your local stadium and for-the-sake-of-argument lets say there are only 4 seat choices: bleachers $15, nose-bleeds (2nd & 3rd deck) $40, between 1st and 3rd base behind the dugouts for $100, and a seat in a suite for $150. They just gave him $53M for his 3 arb years. Cant believe that AA lets him leave. ". The Braves are a Smart Proactive Organization. The rule is if a player finishes 2 top in the ROY balloting he is credited with a full year of service time regardless of the number of days he actually spent in the majors. You can project him to approach or even set some combination of Arb1, Arb2 and Arb3 records, and Strider would still probably come in under $50MM and thats assuming health and sustained dominance. Swanson only played 38 games in his debut season in 2016. Were talking about a position player who finished top 5 MVP both seasons leading into the arb years. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-116-years-of-service.html. Spencer Strider was drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 35th round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft from Christian Academy of Knoxville (Knoxville, TN) and the Atlanta Braves in the 4th round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft from Clemson University (Clemson, SC). October 28, 1998 Click For Complete Top Prospect List for 2023 1. It would definitely be an anomaly if the Braves hit on all this extensions. So yeah, cost of living is a factor. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Swansons best year is his contract year, and even then its only a 115 OPS+ (when 100 is league average). Gotta love it. TO make the math easy lets just say by 20%. older demographic) are even able to do that? Good grief. That means $36 million for each of the two seasons. Gerrit Cole was a Yanks fan growing up, nobody with any knowledge ever though L.A. was really an option. You are making a lot of wild assumptions. Injuries are 75% covered by insurance The mlbtr article mentioned that his agency is Frontline. Over the next 6 years youd probably end up paying him $40m anyway, making the cost of your gamble roughly $40m, since presumably youre paying the buy out in 2029. He also became the first MLB pitcher to record 200 strikeouts and allow fewer than 100 hits. Team Date Transaction; November 14, 2022: Atlanta Braves activated RHP Spencer Strider. If Spencer doesnt get any better than he currently is, hes still an ace. 33. Youd think some of these young Braves players would want to bet on themselves by waiting a few years. Signing Strider screwed their budget for no good reason. As long as the rain holds off on the east coast, we have a nine-game slate in MLB DFS beginning at 4:05 p.m. EDT on DraftKings. Hes getting old and is owed a good chunk of change still. Hes going to get over paid by somebody. If we remove his first-full season clunker in 2017 and fold in 2022, hes still only at a league-average 100. The Braves need to go all-in now when the NL East is weak. Cant do it? Of course, thats certainly not all the Braves will do this winter. And Fried is the one you need to worry about locking up. Some thoughtful Dodgers guys on here too. Talk about betting on your good judgment! You? Spencer Strider, RP, ATL. Saying the Braves arent respected is to play the victim for victims sake. Most of the professional commentators (fwiw) picked the Braves on the basis that the Mets had yet to unthrone the kings. The 2029 club option gives the Braves control over what wouldve been Striders second free-agent campaign. Salary, Earnings Spencer Strider undoubtedly earns a substantial sum of money from his sole career in baseball.

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