AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. Some wouldn't survive. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. Such possibilities seem remote at present. And a navy. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. Despite this, U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. 2. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. If the US went to war with China, who would win? He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. If the US went to war with China, who would win? The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. We should not assume it will attempt this.". "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. And the operating distances are enormous. "We have done work that shows that 'risk aversion'is the critical factor in avoiding war. Credit:AP. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. "Australia has been there before. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". Would Japan? These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. Guam is 1,300 nautical miles and Honolulu (Pearl Harbor) is over 4,200 nautical miles from Taiwan. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "In the history of the 20th century, it took two world wars to deal with the difficult policy question of dealing with rising powers prepared to challenge the statusquo. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. Are bills set to rise? Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. But it is already outnumbered. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. Are bills set to rise? "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before taking the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. Those are easy targets. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. We seem incapable of arresting trends towards existential climate change threats. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. US soldiers, some seen here at a military exercise in Morocco earlier in June, have been deployed to battles across the world for the past 50 years. Failing to come to Taiwans aid would seriously weaken and perhaps destroy Americas position in Asia, and our alliance with America would be seriously weakened if not destroyed if we failed to support the US. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.".

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